The Cranked Report — NFL Projections

Week 1, 2026 · real model output · Matchup Score is a real 0-100 score (blue = better, orange = worse); every other stat's color shows that player trending above or below their own normal pace for that specific stat.

Eagles (home)

Player	Pos	Status	FPTS ↓	Low	High	Vegas Total	Opp Def Rank	Matchup	RZ Touches	H2H Avg	Team Pace	Target Depth	Share Trend	Home/Road Avg	Depth Chart	Pass Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Targets	Rec	Rec Yds	Anytime TD %
Saquon Barkley	RB10	Healthy	15.4	9.2	22.2	19.5	4	96.2	4.4	23.6 (12)	62.2	7.2	-3.3pp	17.4	1	—	—	—	—	18.7	84.4	1.9	1.4	11.4	47%
Jalen Hurts	QB24	Healthy	14.3	4.3	23.8	19.5	5	84.7	0	20 (10)	62.2	7.2	0pp	21.2	1	23.2	176.3	1.5	0.3	4.2	22.7	—	—	—	17.3%
Dallas Goedert	TE7	Healthy	12.5	7.7	17.7	19.5	3	94.4	1.8	10.3 (13)	62.2	6.3	+5.9pp	9.4	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.1	4.4	47.9	28.9%
DeVonta Smith	WR48	Healthy	9.4	3.4	16.7	19.5	12	72.7	0	14.2 (10)	62.2	12.5	-3.1pp	14.2	1	—	—	—	—	0	0	5.3	3.5	47.7	23.9%
Tank Bigsby	RB54	Healthy	7.2	1	13.9	19.5	4	46.2	2.2	13.6 (2)	62.2	0.6	+2.1pp	5.7	2	—	—	—	—	8.3	37.4	1.1	0.7	6.4	24.9%
Will Shipley	RB64	Healthy	5.9	0	12.7	19.5	4	17.9	2	1.5 (3)	62.2	1.3	-1.1pp	1.7	1	—	—	—	—	5	23	1.4	1	8	17.6%
Dontayvion Wicks NEW TEAM	WR96	Healthy	5.5	0	12.9	19.5	12	55.2	0	8.4 (1)	62.2	9.1	-0.3pp	8.4	2	—	—	—	—	0.1	0.8	3.1	2	25.2	14.6%
Grant Calcaterra	TE45	Healthy	5.3	0.5	10.5	19.5	3	39.8	1	3.8 (4)	62.2	8.4	-0.8pp	4.3	5	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.3	1.6	17.8	12%
Andy Dalton NEW TEAM	QB70	Healthy	4.8	0	14.3	19.5	5	20.8	0	8.6 (4)	62.2	7.2	0pp	13.2	2	14.2	90.8	0.5	0.3	0.9	0	—	—	—	4.1%
Tanner McKee	QB71	Healthy	4.2	0	13.8	19.5	5	12.5	0	5.9 (2)	62.2	7.2	0pp	8.2	3	9.9	77.7	0.5	0.3	1.3	0.2	—	—	—	5.6%
Marquise Brown NEW TEAM	WR144	Healthy	3.3	0	10.6	19.5	12	38.5	0	7.1 (3)	62.2	11.5	+3.1pp	11.8	4	—	—	—	—	0	0	2	1.2	15.5	9.1%
Darius Cooper	WR145	Healthy	3.2	0	10.5	19.5	12	19.4	0	6.3 (1)	62.2	7.1	+1.3pp	5.6	1	—	—	—	—	0.1	0.7	1.5	1.2	13.6	9.1%
Elijah Moore NEW TEAM	WR149	Healthy	3.0	0	10.4	19.5	12	38.5	0	4.1 (1)	62.2	10.6	+2.4pp	8.1	5	—	—	—	—	0.2	0.9	1.8	1.1	13.9	8.8%

H2H Avg: real fantasy points average vs. this specific opponent, with real career meetings in parentheses. Share Trend: real percentage-point swing in this player's share of team targets, rising (blue) or falling (orange). Home/Road Avg: real career average matching this week's home/away status. A player tagged NEW has zero career games -- their row uses a real draft-capital debut-game baseline, not the main trained model. NEW TEAM means real career games exist, but none with their current team yet -- their projection is adjusted toward a real depth-chart-rank baseline (tested to improve accuracy for exactly this situation).

Commanders (away)

Player	Pos	Status	FPTS ↓	Low	High	Vegas Total	Opp Def Rank	Matchup	RZ Touches	H2H Avg	Team Pace	Target Depth	Share Trend	Home/Road Avg	Depth Chart	Pass Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Targets	Rec	Rec Yds	Anytime TD %
Jayden Daniels	QB40	Healthy	10.5	0.5	20.1	25	29	65.3	0	23.9 (2)	56	7.2	0pp	17.4	1	22.8	131	0.8	0.5	5.7	33.9	—	—	—	22.9%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	RB39	Healthy	9.7	3.5	16.4	25	13	74.5	3	5.7 (2)	56	7.2	-1pp	7.7	1	—	—	—	—	14.8	65.5	0.1	0	0	36.7%
Marcus Mariota	QB42	Healthy	9.4	0	19	25	29	44.4	0	11.5 (3)	56	7.2	0pp	12.2	2	23.8	143.1	0.8	0.6	3.8	19.4	—	—	—	16%
Terry McLaurin	WR49	Healthy	9.3	3.4	16.6	25	32	60.6	0	14.6 (14)	56	13.1	+1.4pp	13.9	1	—	—	—	—	0	0	5.8	3.4	48.7	23.3%
Dyami Brown	WR74	Healthy	7.4	1.5	14.7	25	32	39.4	2	2.8 (8)	56	24.6	-7.4pp	3.4	3	—	—	—	—	0.3	1	3.8	2.1	25.4	16%
Rachaad White NEW TEAM	RB53	Healthy	7.2	1.1	14	25	13	60.4	0	8.7 (3)	56	-3.6	-2.4pp	11.3	2	—	—	—	—	6.6	27.7	2.3	1.8	13.6	24.1%
Treylon Burks	WR80	Healthy	6.9	1	14.2	25	32	32.1	1	5.9 (3)	56	13.5	+5.3pp	4.6	3	—	—	—	—	0.2	0.5	4.3	2.3	28.9	17%
Stefon Diggs NEW TEAM	WR83	Healthy	6.5	0.6	13.8	25	32	50.3	0	22.1 (4)	56	7.5	+1.5pp	16.3	2	—	—	—	—	0	0	3.8	2.4	29.9	17%
Chig Okonkwo	TE46	Healthy	5.3	0.5	10.5	25	29	66.7	0	10.8 (1)	56	3.5	+8.8pp	6.5	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	4	2.8	27.5	19.7%
John Bates	TE50	Healthy	4.8	0	10.1	25	29	24.1	1.2	3.1 (9)	56	5.6	-3pp	3	2	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.5	1.7	14.2	12.4%
Jeremy McNichols	RB75	Healthy	4.7	0	11.4	25	13	49.1	0	4.2 (4)	56	-3.4	+4.8pp	4.3	4	—	—	—	—	4.3	15.7	2.4	1.8	12.9	18.6%
Luke McCaffrey	WR128	Healthy	3.7	0	11.1	25	32	24.2	0	1.2 (2)	56	7.2	-0.7pp	3.9	1	—	—	—	—	0	0.1	2.5	1.4	17.8	10.4%