The Cranked Report — NFL Projections

Week 1, 2026 · real model output · Matchup Score is a real 0-100 score (blue = better, orange = worse); every other stat's color shows that player trending above or below their own normal pace for that specific stat.

Vikings (home)

Player	Pos	Status	FPTS ↓	Low	High	Vegas Total	Opp Def Rank	Matchup	RZ Touches	H2H Avg	Team Pace	Target Depth	Share Trend	Home/Road Avg	Depth Chart	Pass Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Targets	Rec	Rec Yds	Anytime TD %
Kyler Murray	QB4	Healthy	19.8	9.8	29.3	22	6	80.6	1.2	10.5 (2)	52.6	7.2	0pp	19.4	1	33.5	242.8	1.7	0.5	5.6	31.1	—	—	—	22.5%
Justin Jefferson	WR5	Healthy	18.0	12.1	25.3	22	4	93.3	2.2	16.1 (11)	52.6	7.6	+5.5pp	19.8	1	—	—	—	—	0.2	0.9	9.2	6.1	78.7	38.1%
Carson Wentz	QB22	Healthy	15.3	5.3	24.9	22	6	61.1	0	14 (3)	52.6	7.2	0pp	17.1	3	32.1	227.8	1.6	0.5	2.1	9.7	—	—	—	9%
Aaron Jones	RB14	Healthy	14.5	8.3	21.3	22	9	81.1	2.4	12.8 (3)	52.6	-3.8	-3.5pp	15.6	1	—	—	—	—	14.5	64	4.1	3.2	22.1	43.6%
Jordan Addison	WR21	Healthy	12.0	6.1	19.3	22	4	83.6	1.2	11.8 (6)	52.6	16.4	-9pp	13.2	2	—	—	—	—	0.5	2.6	6.5	4.1	52.2	28.3%
J.J. McCarthy	QB41	Healthy	10.2	0.2	19.8	22	6	31.9	0	4.2 (2)	52.6	7.2	0pp	10.4	2	21.1	143.8	0.8	0.6	3.1	17.8	—	—	—	13%
T.J. Hockenson	TE26	Healthy	7.5	2.7	12.7	22	27	51.9	0	13.1 (8)	52.6	6.3	+2.8pp	11.7	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	4.6	3.3	36.5	23%
Jauan Jennings NEW TEAM	WR109	Healthy	5.1	0	12.4	22	4	89.1	0	9 (1)	52.6	10.3	-4.6pp	7.9	3	—	—	—	—	0	0.2	3.1	1.9	24.4	13.6%
Jordan Mason	RB72	Healthy	5.0	0	11.8	22	9	56.6	1.8	5.3 (3)	52.6	7.2	-0.4pp	7.1	2	—	—	—	—	7.4	35.1	0	0	0	20.5%
Josh Oliver	TE60	Healthy	4.2	0	9.4	22	27	26.9	0	4.5 (4)	52.6	5.2	+3pp	3.5	2	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.2	1.6	18.1	11.7%

H2H Avg: real fantasy points average vs. this specific opponent, with real career meetings in parentheses. Share Trend: real percentage-point swing in this player's share of team targets, rising (blue) or falling (orange). Home/Road Avg: real career average matching this week's home/away status. A player tagged NEW has zero career games -- their row uses a real draft-capital debut-game baseline, not the main trained model. NEW TEAM means real career games exist, but none with their current team yet -- their projection is adjusted toward a real depth-chart-rank baseline (tested to improve accuracy for exactly this situation).

Packers (away)

Player	Pos	Status	FPTS ↓	Low	High	Vegas Total	Opp Def Rank	Matchup	RZ Touches	H2H Avg	Team Pace	Target Depth	Share Trend	Home/Road Avg	Depth Chart	Pass Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Targets	Rec	Rec Yds	Anytime TD %
Jordan Love	QB14	Healthy	16.5	6.5	26.1	23.5	32	36.1	1.2	10.7 (9)	54.8	7.2	0pp	15.3	1	32.1	232.2	1.4	0.9	3.8	18	—	—	—	15.7%
Tucker Kraft	TE6	Healthy	12.8	8	18	23.5	31	47.2	2	8.9 (4)	54.8	3.5	+1.7pp	9.8	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.4	4.4	49.8	29.3%
Jayden Reed	WR53	Healthy	8.8	2.9	16.1	23.5	25	52.1	0	17 (4)	54.8	7.6	-0.6pp	12.9	2	—	—	—	—	0.9	4.4	4.8	3.3	43.2	24.9%
Christian Watson	WR60	Healthy	8.0	2.1	15.4	23.5	25	61.8	0	4.9 (5)	54.8	15.3	-2.2pp	11.7	1	—	—	—	—	0.2	0.7	4.9	2.7	42.5	19.6%
Tyrod Taylor NEW TEAM	QB59	Healthy	6.5	0	16.1	23.5	32	38.9	0	0 (0)	54.8	7.2	0pp	12.3	2	17.1	106.8	0.5	0.5	2.5	9.7	—	—	—	10.7%
Jonnu Smith NEW TEAM	TE36	Healthy	6.2	1.4	11.5	23.5	31	25	1.2	11.6 (3)	54.8	3.1	+0.4pp	6.4	2	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.1	2.2	17.2	15.5%
Matthew Golden	WR95	Healthy	5.5	0	12.8	23.5	25	35.8	0	1.8 (1)	54.8	14.1	-0.3pp	5.8	3	—	—	—	—	0.5	2.1	3.3	2	27.7	15.9%
Chris Brooks	RB84	Healthy	3.7	0	10.4	23.5	26	18.9	1.2	4.9 (2)	54.8	7.2	+0.8pp	1.6	2	—	—	—	—	4.5	20.6	0.5	0.4	3.5	14.3%
Luke Musgrave	TE82	Healthy	3.1	0	8.3	23.5	31	32.4	0	2.6 (4)	54.8	9.4	+3.1pp	4.3	5	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.4	1.6	15.2	11.6%