The Cranked Report — NFL Projections

Week 1, 2026 · real model output · Matchup Score is a real 0-100 score (blue = better, orange = worse); every other stat's color shows that player trending above or below their own normal pace for that specific stat.

Steelers (home)

Player	Pos	Status	FPTS ↓	Low	High	Vegas Total	Opp Def Rank	Matchup	RZ Touches	H2H Avg	Team Pace	Target Depth	Share Trend	Home/Road Avg	Depth Chart	Pass Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Targets	Rec	Rec Yds	Anytime TD %
Aaron Rodgers	QB23	Healthy	14.7	4.7	24.3	19.5	15	59.7	0	25.5 (4)	63.6	7.2	-0.4pp	18.5	1	33.6	234.8	1.6	0.6	1.6	3.4	—	—	—	6.8%
Jaylen Warren	RB22	Healthy	13.4	7.2	20.2	19.5	31	42.5	3	4 (2)	63.6	-4	-1.8pp	8.8	2	—	—	—	—	11.4	50.9	3.4	2.6	19.7	36.7%
Pat Freiermuth	TE13	Healthy	10.7	5.9	16	19.5	12	71.3	1.6	8.6 (2)	63.6	4.8	+3.3pp	8.7	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	5.2	3.8	38.6	25.9%
DK Metcalf	WR37	Healthy	10.1	4.2	17.4	19.5	6	90.9	0	18.3 (4)	63.6	9.4	+0.6pp	14.2	1	—	—	—	—	0.1	0.8	5.8	3.6	51.8	24.8%
Mason Rudolph	QB46	Healthy	8.6	0	18.2	19.5	15	16.7	0	0 (0)	63.6	7.2	0pp	9.7	2	22.1	142.1	0.8	0.4	2.1	5.5	—	—	—	9.2%
Rico Dowdle NEW TEAM	RB43	Healthy	8.6	2.4	15.4	19.5	31	44.3	3.8	15.8 (3)	63.6	-1.1	+1.3pp	9.7	2	—	—	—	—	8.1	33.9	2.4	1.9	14.5	27.8%
Michael Pittman NEW TEAM	WR67	Healthy	7.8	1.9	15.2	19.5	6	81.2	2.6	3.9 (1)	63.6	9.5	-4.4pp	11.5	2	—	—	—	—	0.2	0.8	4.4	2.8	33.2	19.9%
Darnell Washington	TE52	Healthy	4.6	0	9.9	19.5	12	58.3	0	1.5 (1)	63.6	4.8	-1.9pp	4.2	2	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.8	2.1	22.3	15.2%
Roman Wilson	WR135	Healthy	3.6	0	10.9	19.5	6	62.4	0	0 (0)	63.6	13	+1pp	4.3	3	—	—	—	—	0	0.2	2.1	1.2	18.4	8.8%

H2H Avg: real fantasy points average vs. this specific opponent, with real career meetings in parentheses. Share Trend: real percentage-point swing in this player's share of team targets, rising (blue) or falling (orange). Home/Road Avg: real career average matching this week's home/away status. A player tagged NEW has zero career games -- their row uses a real draft-capital debut-game baseline, not the main trained model. NEW TEAM means real career games exist, but none with their current team yet -- their projection is adjusted toward a real depth-chart-rank baseline (tested to improve accuracy for exactly this situation).

Falcons (away)

Player	Pos	Status	FPTS ↓	Low	High	Vegas Total	Opp Def Rank	Matchup	RZ Touches	H2H Avg	Team Pace	Target Depth	Share Trend	Home/Road Avg	Depth Chart	Pass Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Targets	Rec	Rec Yds	Anytime TD %
Bijan Robinson	RB2	Healthy	20.9	14.8	27.7	23	20	95.3	3.4	16.1 (1)	64	0.8	+12.7pp	17.8	1	—	—	—	—	18.2	85.4	5.7	4.5	36.6	52.3%
Drake London	WR8	Healthy	16.8	10.9	24.1	23	23	73.3	2.4	9.5 (2)	64	12.2	-10.3pp	12	1	—	—	—	—	0.2	0.7	9.3	5.8	72.3	36.5%
Kyle Pitts	TE2	Healthy	15.9	11.1	21.2	23	4	100	2.2	11.6 (1)	64	8.1	+0.3pp	9.7	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	8.4	5.9	63.8	36.8%
Michael Penix Jr.	QB35	Healthy	12.1	2.1	21.7	23	14	77.8	0	0 (0)	64	7.2	0pp	9.6	2	30.2	211.4	1.1	0.7	2	7.9	—	—	—	8.6%
Tua Tagovailoa	QB38	Healthy	11.6	1.6	21.2	23	14	51.4	0	16.1 (2)	64	7.2	0pp	14.9	1	27	198.1	1.2	0.6	1.7	2.6	—	—	—	7.2%
Olamide Zaccheaus	WR71	Healthy	7.7	1.7	15	23	23	42.4	1.4	2.2 (3)	64	8.2	-2.2pp	6.3	2	—	—	—	—	0.1	0.7	4.4	2.7	30	19.1%
Cooper Rush NEW TEAM	QB60	Healthy	6.4	0	15.9	23	14	27.8	0	0 (0)	64	7.2	0pp	5.8	3	17.2	111.2	0.6	0.5	1.6	2.6	—	—	—	7.1%
Austin Hooper	TE37	Healthy	6.2	1.4	11.5	23	4	77.8	1	9.5 (6)	64	11.7	+2.6pp	7.4	3	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.1	2.2	23.1	16.1%
Jahan Dotson NEW TEAM	WR113	Healthy	4.9	0	12.2	23	23	30.9	1.2	0 (1)	64	15.3	+0.4pp	5.4	3	—	—	—	—	0.1	0.3	2.8	1.7	21.4	12.7%