Every number on this site comes from a real model trained on real NFL data. This page explains what everything means, in plain English, plus a full glossary of every column you'll see.
QB = Quarterback, the player who throws (and sometimes runs) the ball. RB = Running Back, who mostly runs the ball and catches short passes. WR = Wide Receiver, who mainly catches passes, often downfield. TE = Tight End, a hybrid role that both catches passes and blocks. Every table on this site is organized around these four.
The single most important distinction on the site. Your team columns are about the player's own offense — how good it's expected to be, how it's trending, its own playcalling tendencies. Opponent columns are about the defense they're facing this week. A player can have a great matchup but a rough outlook, or the reverse — we keep these visually and structurally separate everywhere on the site.
Most stat cells use blue for a player projected above their own real recent average for that specific stat, orange for below normal pace. This is done separately for every stat, not just fantasy points — a QB could show blue for passing yards and orange for interceptions in the same row. For interceptions specifically, blue means fewer projected than normal, since fewer turnovers is the better outlook.
Matchup Score and Anytime TD % use a different color rule on purpose: they're already an absolute 0-100 (or 0-100%) reading, not a comparison to a baseline, so their color is a direct gradient — low numbers orange, high numbers blue — rather than “trending up or down.”
A real 0-100 score for how favorable this specific player's opportunity is this week — not just “is the defense bad,” but “is this player actually positioned to exploit it.” Two players on the same team facing the same defense can have very different Matchup Scores if one of them barely plays.
It combines the defense's real difficulty (what they actually give up to this specific position — yards and touchdowns, not one overall rank) with the game's Vegas-implied scoring environment, then scales that by the player's own recent volume.
The weights aren't guesses. Tested across 17,348 real player-weeks, this version correlates 0.539 with actual fantasy points, up from 0.445 for the original formula — about 21% better. The biggest single finding was that volume matters roughly twice as much as originally assumed: a low-volume player in a great matchup deserves to be pushed well down, not held near the middle.
The real probability a player scores at least one touchdown this week — not a raw projected count. Converted from the model's projected TD mean via the Poisson distribution (the standard way to make this conversion): 1 minus e to the power of negative the projected mean. For running backs and wide receivers, rushing and receiving TD chances are combined into one number, since an anytime-TD bet doesn't care which way they got in. For quarterbacks, only rushing TDs count toward their own odds — a passing touchdown is thrown, not scored by the QB. These probabilities are then calibrated against 17,348 real player-weeks from 2023-2025. The raw conversion was accurate on average, but it systematically understated long shots — players it put under 5% actually scored about 5.1% of the time. The correction fixes that without changing the order players appear in.
Every stat comes with a projection plus a Low and High. That range isn't a guess — it's built from how wrong this exact model has actually been, tested on real weeks it never saw during training. It's an 80% range: the real outcome lands there about 80% of the time.
A tight range means the model has been reliably accurate for this type of player. A wide range is an honest “this could go either way” — often because the player is in a role with more inherent uncertainty (a backup, a rookie, a committee back).
We track this openly. Every week, we compare projections against what actually happened and publish the real results — not cherry-picked good weeks.
This site uses PPR scoring by default — short for “Points Per Reception,” meaning a player earns a real point just for catching a pass, not only for the yards or touchdown that follow. The full breakdown: 1 point per 25 passing yards, 4 per passing TD, -2 per interception; 1 point per 10 rushing/receiving yards, 6 per rushing/receiving TD; 1 point per reception.
Play a different scoring format? League Settings lets you match your real league's rules, and every FPTS number on the site updates automatically.
Status — this week's real injury designation. OUT players are already zeroed out; Doubtful players are already discounted.
NEW badge — this player has zero career games logged (a genuine first-time call-up: practice-squad promotion, waiver signing, never-played rookie). Their row uses a real draft-capital debut-game baseline instead of the main model — treat with extra caution.
Every stat and column you'll see on the site, grouped by what it's telling you.