The Cranked Report — NFL Projections

Week 1, 2026 · real model output · Matchup Score is a real 0-100 score (blue = better, orange = worse); every other stat's color shows that player trending above or below their own normal pace for that specific stat.

Chiefs (home)

Player	Pos	Status	FPTS ↓	Low	High	Vegas Total	Opp Def Rank	Matchup	RZ Touches	H2H Avg	Team Pace	Target Depth	Share Trend	Home/Road Avg	Depth Chart	Pass Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Targets	Rec	Rec Yds	Anytime TD %
Patrick Mahomes	QB1	Healthy	22.2	12.2	31.8	19.75	10	83.3	1.2	17.2 (15)	53.2	7.2	+0.7pp	20.8	1	38.4	286.3	2	0.7	4.6	23	—	—	—	18.7%
Rashee Rice	WR3	Healthy	21.0	15.1	28.4	19.75	17	80.6	3.4	10.2 (3)	53.2	6.2	+6.5pp	15.5	1	—	—	—	—	0.5	2.9	10.6	7.1	82.1	43.5%
Kenneth Walker III	RB23	Healthy	12.7	6.5	19.5	19.75	30	52.8	2.2	18.9 (1)	53.2	-1.4	-3.1pp	13.9	1	—	—	—	—	13	56.4	2.9	2.3	17.1	38.8%
Justin Fields NEW TEAM	QB43	Healthy	9.3	0	18.9	19.75	10	43.1	2.4	14.7 (3)	53.2	7.2	0pp	16.4	2	18	123.5	0.7	0.4	3.7	15.6	—	—	—	15.3%
Travis Kelce	TE20	Healthy	8.9	4.1	14.1	19.75	8	92.6	0	17.5 (18)	53.2	7.5	+4.1pp	15.3	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	5.5	3.9	42.8	26.4%
Chris Oladokun	QB45	Healthy	8.7	0	18.3	19.75	10	18.1	0	4.1 (2)	53.2	7.2	0pp	7.7	4	23.9	149.2	0.8	0.5	2.3	8.9	—	—	—	9.9%
Xavier Worthy	WR56	Healthy	8.4	2.5	15.7	19.75	17	69.1	0	2.6 (3)	53.2	13.1	-3.4pp	8.5	3	—	—	—	—	0.5	2.6	5	3	42.3	22.4%
Brashard Smith	RB79	Healthy	4.5	0	11.2	19.75	30	15.1	0	6.2 (2)	53.2	-0.9	+2.6pp	4.7	2	—	—	—	—	2.9	10.8	2.2	1.7	13	14.4%
Tyquan Thornton	WR126	Healthy	4.0	0	11.3	19.75	17	23.6	0	5.1 (2)	53.2	37.5	-1.4pp	4.6	3	—	—	—	—	0	0	2.4	1.1	22.3	8.1%

H2H Avg: real fantasy points average vs. this specific opponent, with real career meetings in parentheses. Share Trend: real percentage-point swing in this player's share of team targets, rising (blue) or falling (orange). Home/Road Avg: real career average matching this week's home/away status. A player tagged NEW has zero career games -- their row uses a real draft-capital debut-game baseline, not the main trained model. NEW TEAM means real career games exist, but none with their current team yet -- their projection is adjusted toward a real depth-chart-rank baseline (tested to improve accuracy for exactly this situation).

Broncos (away)

Player	Pos	Status	FPTS ↓	Low	High	Vegas Total	Opp Def Rank	Matchup	RZ Touches	H2H Avg	Team Pace	Target Depth	Share Trend	Home/Road Avg	Depth Chart	Pass Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Targets	Rec	Rec Yds	Anytime TD %
RJ Harvey	RB11	Healthy	15.2	9	22	22.75	14	93.4	4.8	13.3 (2)	64.2	1	-1.2pp	12.4	3	—	—	—	—	13.5	61.7	3.8	2.9	22.7	41.2%
Bo Nix	QB31	Healthy	12.9	2.9	22.5	22.75	19	93.1	0	20.4 (4)	64.2	7.2	-0.3pp	17	1	33.4	205.4	1.2	0.6	3.1	13.7	—	—	—	13.2%
J.K. Dobbins	RB28	Healthy	12.0	5.8	18.8	22.75	14	88.7	2.2	8.8 (2)	64.2	-2.8	-0.5pp	11.6	1	—	—	—	—	13.4	63.5	2.2	1.6	11.7	38.1%
Troy Franklin	WR42	Healthy	9.6	3.7	16.9	22.75	13	69.7	1.2	5.8 (4)	64.2	7.4	-4.5pp	5.7	3	—	—	—	—	0.2	1.1	5.4	3.5	40.3	24.5%
Courtland Sutton	WR46	Healthy	9.4	3.5	16.7	22.75	13	89.7	0	11 (13)	64.2	12.5	+5.5pp	12.1	2	—	—	—	—	0	0	6.1	3.6	49.4	24.5%
Pat Bryant	WR47	Healthy	9.4	3.5	16.7	22.75	13	76.4	1	13.2 (1)	64.2	8.7	+2.3pp	4.5	5	—	—	—	—	0.1	0.5	5.4	3.4	41.6	23.5%
Jaylen Waddle	WR50	Healthy	9.1	3.2	16.4	22.75	13	83	0	8.4 (1)	64.2	12.8	-1.5pp	12.6	1	—	—	—	—	0.1	0.6	5.5	3.5	46.8	24.2%
Marvin Mims Jr.	WR62	Healthy	8.0	2.1	15.3	22.75	13	66.1	1	5.7 (6)	64.2	3.6	+4.3pp	5.4	1	—	—	—	—	0.6	3.1	4.2	2.9	30.9	22%
Lil'Jordan Humphrey	WR75	Healthy	7.2	1.3	14.5	22.75	13	46.1	1.8	6 (4)	64.2	9	-0.9pp	3.1	6	—	—	—	—	0.1	0.4	3.6	2.3	24.6	16.7%
Sam Ehlinger NEW TEAM	QB54	Healthy	7.0	0	16.6	22.75	19	25	1	0 (0)	64.2	7.2	0pp	3.6	3	17.3	111.5	0.5	0.4	2.5	10	—	—	—	10.5%
Tyler Badie	RB63	Healthy	6.0	0	12.7	22.75	14	33	1.2	0.5 (2)	64.2	-3.7	-1.7pp	2.7	2	—	—	—	—	2.6	13.4	2.8	2.1	15.3	14.8%
Evan Engram	TE44	Healthy	5.4	0.6	10.6	22.75	20	60.2	0	7 (6)	64.2	3.1	-2.4pp	11.3	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.7	2.8	26.7	19.5%
Adam Trautman	TE78	Healthy	3.3	0	8.6	22.75	20	40.7	0	3 (4)	64.2	3.8	+2.6pp	3.8	2	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.1	1.5	14.8	11.2%