The Cranked Report — NFL Projections

Week 1, 2026 · real model output · Matchup Score is a real 0-100 score (blue = better, orange = worse); every other stat's color shows that player trending above or below their own normal pace for that specific stat.

Panthers (home)

Player	Pos	Status	FPTS ↓	Low	High	Vegas Total	Opp Def Rank	Matchup	RZ Touches	H2H Avg	Team Pace	Target Depth	Share Trend	Home/Road Avg	Depth Chart	Pass Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Targets	Rec	Rec Yds	Anytime TD %
Tetairoa McMillan	WR12	Healthy	14.7	8.7	22	25	9	93.9	2.2	0 (0)	52.8	14.5	-1.3pp	12.4	1	—	—	—	—	0.2	0.8	7.8	4.6	61.8	30.6%
Bryce Young	QB27	Healthy	13.6	3.6	23.2	25	12	68.1	0	6.2 (2)	52.8	7.2	0pp	12.7	1	29.9	195.8	1.2	0.6	3.4	18.1	—	—	—	14.4%
Jalen Coker	WR22	Healthy	11.6	5.6	18.9	25	9	84.8	1.4	10.8 (1)	52.8	10.6	-0.1pp	8.3	2	—	—	—	—	0.2	0.9	5.9	3.8	49.7	26.1%
Chuba Hubbard	RB40	Healthy	9.4	3.3	16.2	25	28	64.2	1.6	11.7 (2)	52.8	-2.6	-0.5pp	10.2	1	—	—	—	—	8.5	36.3	2.7	2.1	17.1	29.2%
Tommy Tremble	TE27	Healthy	7.4	2.5	12.6	25	23	48.1	1.2	2.2 (2)	52.8	3.4	+2.4pp	4.1	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.7	2.8	26.4	19.4%
Ja'Tavion Sanders	TE31	Healthy	7.0	2.2	12.2	25	23	54.6	1	4.3 (1)	52.8	3.4	-4.1pp	5.9	4	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.7	2.8	26.1	19.5%
Darren Waller NEW TEAM	TE38	Healthy	5.8	1	11.1	25	23	73.1	0	8.2 (2)	52.8	10.6	+6pp	11.5	3	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.5	2.5	29.5	17.8%
John Metchie III NEW TEAM	WR91	Healthy	5.6	0	13	25	9	95.8	0	0 (0)	52.8	6.5	-3.8pp	4.1	2	—	—	—	—	0.2	1.1	3.3	2.1	25.9	15.4%
Kenny Pickett NEW TEAM	QB67	Healthy	5.2	0	14.8	25	12	8.3	0	0 (0)	52.8	7.2	0pp	8.9	2	14.3	88	0.5	0.3	1.5	5.5	—	—	—	6.8%
AJ Dillon NEW TEAM	RB76	Healthy	4.7	0	11.5	25	28	29.2	1.8	7.9 (6)	52.8	0.9	+0.3pp	8.1	3	—	—	—	—	4.3	18.5	1.3	1	7.9	15.8%
Xavier Legette	WR118	Healthy	4.5	0	11.8	25	9	70.9	0	1.8 (1)	52.8	10.2	-2.2pp	6.9	3	—	—	—	—	0.1	0.5	3	1.7	22.3	12.5%
Mitchell Evans	TE75	Healthy	3.5	0	8.7	25	23	44.4	0	0 (0)	52.8	3	-0.7pp	3.5	2	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.2	1.6	16.3	12%
Jonathon Brooks	RB94	Healthy	3.0	0	9.8	25	28	43.4	0	0 (0)	52.8	7.2	0pp	7.1	2	—	—	—	—	4.1	16.2	0.6	0.5	5.6	13.6%
Jimmy Horn Jr.	WR150	Healthy	3.0	0	10.3	25	9	44.8	0	0 (0)	52.8	1.1	-1.3pp	3.2	1	—	—	—	—	0.7	3.6	1.5	1.2	12	10.9%

H2H Avg: real fantasy points average vs. this specific opponent, with real career meetings in parentheses. Share Trend: real percentage-point swing in this player's share of team targets, rising (blue) or falling (orange). Home/Road Avg: real career average matching this week's home/away status. A player tagged NEW has zero career games -- their row uses a real draft-capital debut-game baseline, not the main trained model. NEW TEAM means real career games exist, but none with their current team yet -- their projection is adjusted toward a real depth-chart-rank baseline (tested to improve accuracy for exactly this situation).

Bears (away)

Player	Pos	Status	FPTS ↓	Low	High	Vegas Total	Opp Def Rank	Matchup	RZ Touches	H2H Avg	Team Pace	Target Depth	Share Trend	Home/Road Avg	Depth Chart	Pass Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Targets	Rec	Rec Yds	Anytime TD %
Caleb Williams	QB11	Healthy	17.3	7.3	26.9	22.5	27	79.2	1.4	23.6 (1)	63.6	7.2	0pp	15.4	1	31.7	227.9	1.4	0.8	5.1	26.5	—	—	—	20.5%
D'Andre Swift	RB15	Healthy	14.4	8.2	21.1	22.5	7	79.2	2.4	11.8 (2)	63.6	-2.3	-2.4pp	13.6	1	—	—	—	—	13.6	60.2	3.2	2.4	20.2	40.3%
Kyle Monangai	RB21	Healthy	13.5	7.3	20.3	22.5	7	75.5	2.8	0 (0)	63.6	-2	+4.5pp	9.2	2	—	—	—	—	13.2	59.6	3.1	2.3	19.5	39.1%
Colston Loveland	TE10	Healthy	12.4	7.6	17.6	22.5	25	67.6	1.6	0 (0)	63.6	9.7	+3pp	10.8	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.2	4.3	49.1	28.7%
Rome Odunze	WR18	Healthy	12.2	6.2	19.5	22.5	15	81.8	1.6	9 (1)	63.6	15.5	+3.9pp	11.2	1	—	—	—	—	0.1	0.4	7.1	4	53.3	27.2%
Luther Burden III	WR36	Healthy	10.1	4.1	17.4	22.5	15	80	0	0 (0)	63.6	8	+6.6pp	8.2	4	—	—	—	—	0.3	2.2	5.3	3.7	49.7	26%
Cole Kmet	TE23	Healthy	8.3	3.5	13.6	22.5	25	46.3	1.2	9.4 (3)	63.6	9.7	+1pp	7.5	2	—	—	—	—	—	—	4.2	3	31.6	21%
Case Keenum NEW TEAM	QB66	Healthy	5.9	0	15.4	22.5	27	22.2	0	16.5 (2)	63.6	7.2	0pp	12.9	3	17.5	110.8	0.5	0.5	1.5	0.6	—	—	—	6.4%
Jahdae Walker	WR147	Healthy	3.1	0	10.4	22.5	15	27.3	0	0 (0)	63.6	12.2	+2.7pp	1.7	5	—	—	—	—	0	0.3	2.1	1.1	16	8.5%