The Cranked Report — NFL Projections

Week 1, 2026 · real model output · Matchup Score is a real 0-100 score (blue = better, orange = worse); every other stat's color shows that player trending above or below their own normal pace for that specific stat.

Lions (home)

Player	Pos	Status	FPTS ↓	Low	High	Vegas Total	Opp Def Rank	Matchup	RZ Touches	H2H Avg	Team Pace	Target Depth	Share Trend	Home/Road Avg	Depth Chart	Pass Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Targets	Rec	Rec Yds	Anytime TD %
Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR2	Healthy	21.5	15.5	28.8	21.25	26	61.2	3	12.9 (1)	61.8	4.3	+7.2pp	18.9	1	—	—	—	—	0.3	1.6	11	7.5	88.3	44.9%
Jared Goff	QB7	Healthy	18.1	8.1	27.7	21.25	28	62.5	0	20.2 (5)	61.8	7.2	0pp	18.1	1	35.4	274.5	2	0.7	1.3	2.1	—	—	—	5.5%
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB9	Healthy	15.5	9.3	22.3	21.25	22	89.6	3.6	6.4 (1)	61.8	2.4	-1.8pp	21.8	1	—	—	—	—	14.2	60.9	4.9	3.7	27.8	44.2%
Jameson Williams	WR11	Healthy	14.8	8.9	22.1	21.25	26	57.6	1.4	10 (1)	61.8	12.4	-3.2pp	11.7	2	—	—	—	—	0.4	2	7.7	4.8	67.5	32%
Sam LaPorta	TE8	Healthy	12.4	7.6	17.6	21.25	24	59.3	1.2	29 (1)	61.8	6.2	-0.4pp	13.7	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.3	4.5	51.5	29.8%
Isaac TeSlaa	WR108	Healthy	5.2	0	12.5	21.25	26	34.5	0	0 (0)	61.8	11.8	+3pp	6.8	3	—	—	—	—	0	0.1	3	1.7	25.3	12.2%
Brock Wright	TE69	Healthy	3.9	0	9.1	21.25	24	43.5	0	1.8 (1)	61.8	0	+1pp	4	2	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.5	1.9	17.6	13.5%
Isiah Pacheco NEW TEAM	RB92	Healthy	3.5	0	10.2	21.25	22	65.1	3	0 (0)	61.8	7.2	+2.8pp	9.1	4	—	—	—	—	4.1	17.2	0.6	0.5	3.5	13.5%
Tay Martin	WR148	Healthy	3.1	0	10.4	21.25	26	10.3	0	0 (0)	61.8	22.8	0pp	11.9	1	—	—	—	—	0.1	0.4	1.3	0.6	14.9	4.6%
Tyler Conklin NEW TEAM	TE83	Healthy	3.1	0	8.3	21.25	24	30.6	0	7.1 (1)	61.8	3.8	-4.5pp	6.4	3	—	—	—	—	—	—	2	1.5	14.4	11.3%

H2H Avg: real fantasy points average vs. this specific opponent, with real career meetings in parentheses. Share Trend: real percentage-point swing in this player's share of team targets, rising (blue) or falling (orange). Home/Road Avg: real career average matching this week's home/away status. A player tagged NEW has zero career games -- their row uses a real draft-capital debut-game baseline, not the main trained model. NEW TEAM means real career games exist, but none with their current team yet -- their projection is adjusted toward a real depth-chart-rank baseline (tested to improve accuracy for exactly this situation).

Saints (away)

Player	Pos	Status	FPTS ↓	Low	High	Vegas Total	Opp Def Rank	Matchup	RZ Touches	H2H Avg	Team Pace	Target Depth	Share Trend	Home/Road Avg	Depth Chart	Pass Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Targets	Rec	Rec Yds	Anytime TD %
Tyler Shough	QB6	Healthy	18.6	8.6	28.2	28.25	16	100	2	0 (0)	62.6	7.2	0pp	18.4	1	33.4	247.4	1.4	0.8	5.3	23.3	—	—	—	21.5%
Travis Etienne	RB8	Healthy	15.6	9.4	22.4	28.25	6	99.1	3.6	7 (2)	62.6	-1.9	+1.8pp	13.1	1	—	—	—	—	15.3	65.4	4.5	3.4	23.6	45.5%
Chris Olave	WR10	Healthy	14.8	8.9	22.2	28.25	2	100	1	16.9 (1)	62.6	14.6	+3.1pp	14.2	1	—	—	—	—	0.1	0.5	8.3	5.2	70.5	33.7%
Devin Neal	RB26	Healthy	12.4	6.2	19.2	28.25	6	92.5	2.5	0 (0)	62.6	-2.2	+3.6pp	6.7	1	—	—	—	—	12.1	51.2	3.6	2.8	21.5	38.3%
Audric Estimé	RB33	Healthy	10.4	4.2	17.2	28.25	6	80.2	1.2	0 (0)	62.6	-1.5	+3.8pp	6.7	4	—	—	—	—	10.7	46.9	2.8	2.1	16.2	33.8%
Alvin Kamara	RB49	Healthy	7.9	1.7	14.6	28.25	6	97.2	0	20.5 (3)	62.6	1	-3.3pp	18.5	2	—	—	—	—	7.8	32.2	3.1	2.3	19	28.4%
Devaughn Vele	WR68	Healthy	7.8	1.9	15.1	28.25	2	96.4	0	0 (0)	62.6	13.3	+9pp	9.1	2	—	—	—	—	0	0.2	4.6	2.8	39.7	19.6%
Spencer Rattler	QB53	Healthy	7.3	0	16.9	28.25	16	87.5	0	0 (0)	62.6	7.2	-0.9pp	10.3	2	21.9	132.1	0.5	0.5	2.8	14.8	—	—	—	11.8%
Juwan Johnson	TE34	Healthy	6.9	2.1	12.1	28.25	13	97.2	0	0 (1)	62.6	7	-2.1pp	7.3	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	4.4	3.2	33.7	22%
Mason Tipton	WR85	Healthy	6.4	0.5	13.7	28.25	2	79.4	1	0 (0)	62.6	11	+1.5pp	1.4	3	—	—	—	—	0.4	2	3.8	2.2	26.3	16.6%
Kendre Miller	RB83	Healthy	3.8	0	10.6	28.25	6	82.1	0	0 (0)	62.6	7.2	-0.8pp	5.9	2	—	—	—	—	6.6	28.8	0.3	0.1	1.6	18.9%
Noah Fant NEW TEAM	TE74	Healthy	3.6	0	8.9	28.25	13	75	0	6.7 (5)	62.6	2.3	-2.6pp	7.7	2	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.4	1.9	20	13.6%
Zach Wilson NEW TEAM	QB76	Healthy	3.3	0	12.9	28.25	16	23.6	0	19.4 (1)	62.6	7.2	0pp	6.5	3	13.1	71.6	0.2	0.4	1.8	7.3	—	—	—	7.8%