The Cranked Report — NFL Projections

Week 1, 2026 · real model output · Matchup Score is a real 0-100 score (blue = better, orange = worse); every other stat's color shows that player trending above or below their own normal pace for that specific stat.

Bengals (home)

Player	Pos	Status	FPTS ↓	Low	High	Vegas Total	Opp Def Rank	Matchup	RZ Touches	H2H Avg	Team Pace	Target Depth	Share Trend	Home/Road Avg	Depth Chart	Pass Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Targets	Rec	Rec Yds	Anytime TD %
Ja'Marr Chase	WR4	Healthy	19.7	13.7	27	24	29	72.1	1.8	19 (1)	67.8	7.5	+3.1pp	20.9	1	—	—	—	—	0.2	1.3	10.2	6.9	86.7	41.9%
Chase Brown	RB5	Healthy	17.3	11.1	24	24	19	90.6	4.6	0 (0)	67.8	1.6	-2.6pp	13.3	1	—	—	—	—	13.8	61.3	4.3	3.5	22.4	43%
Joe Burrow	QB16	Healthy	15.9	5.9	25.5	24	4	94.4	0	24.8 (1)	67.8	7.2	0pp	20.5	1	33.3	242	1.8	0.7	2	6.5	—	—	—	8.5%
Tee Higgins	WR16	Healthy	12.8	6.9	20.1	24	29	64.8	1.2	16.3 (1)	67.8	13.5	+0.8pp	16	2	—	—	—	—	0.1	0.7	6.6	4.2	57.1	28.3%
Samaje Perine	RB36	Healthy	9.8	3.6	16.5	24	19	69.8	2.6	8.4 (2)	67.8	-2.6	+2pp	6.1	1	—	—	—	—	7.5	29.2	3	2.4	17.6	27.8%
Mike Gesicki	TE22	Healthy	8.5	3.7	13.7	24	1	96.3	1.4	8.3 (1)	67.8	13.5	-2.4pp	8	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	4.2	3	31.2	20.9%
Andrei Iosivas	WR64	Healthy	7.8	1.9	15.1	24	29	35.2	1.2	0 (0)	67.8	14.8	-2.3pp	7.3	3	—	—	—	—	0.1	0.6	4.1	2.4	30.7	17.6%
Tahj Brooks	RB77	Healthy	4.6	0	11.4	24	19	20.8	0	0 (0)	67.8	-3	+0.6pp	0.5	2	—	—	—	—	2.6	9.9	2.4	1.9	12.8	14.3%
Joe Flacco	QB72	Healthy	4.2	0	13.7	24	4	54.2	0	0 (0)	67.8	7.2	0pp	14.2	2	17.3	100.9	0.6	0.4	0.3	0	—	—	—	1.5%
Erick All	TE68	Healthy	3.9	0	9.1	24	1	88.9	0	0 (0)	67.8	2.7	-1.5pp	4.7	3	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.4	1.9	18.5	13.8%
Drew Sample	TE76	Healthy	3.5	0	8.7	24	1	63.9	0	0 (0)	67.8	-0.8	+1.3pp	3.4	2	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.1	1.6	14.8	12%

H2H Avg: real fantasy points average vs. this specific opponent, with real career meetings in parentheses. Share Trend: real percentage-point swing in this player's share of team targets, rising (blue) or falling (orange). Home/Road Avg: real career average matching this week's home/away status. A player tagged NEW has zero career games -- their row uses a real draft-capital debut-game baseline, not the main trained model. NEW TEAM means real career games exist, but none with their current team yet -- their projection is adjusted toward a real depth-chart-rank baseline (tested to improve accuracy for exactly this situation).

Buccaneers (away)

Player	Pos	Status	FPTS ↓	Low	High	Vegas Total	Opp Def Rank	Matchup	RZ Touches	H2H Avg	Team Pace	Target Depth	Share Trend	Home/Road Avg	Depth Chart	Pass Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Targets	Rec	Rec Yds	Anytime TD %
Baker Mayfield	QB18	Healthy	15.7	5.7	25.3	27.5	17	90.3	0	19.7 (8)	61.6	7.2	0pp	15.4	1	30.5	222.4	1.6	0.7	3	17.5	—	—	—	12.8%
Kenny Gainwell	RB13	Healthy	14.7	8.5	21.5	27.5	15	86.8	3.2	11.6 (3)	61.6	0	-0.1pp	6.2	1	—	—	—	—	10.9	49.6	4.4	3.6	27	37.9%
Bucky Irving	RB18	Healthy	13.8	7.6	20.6	27.5	15	98.1	2.4	0 (0)	61.6	-1.3	-3pp	13.9	1	—	—	—	—	14.1	58.4	3.7	2.9	22.4	42.2%
Emeka Egbuka	WR25	Healthy	11.5	5.6	18.9	27.5	30	73.9	1.4	0 (0)	61.6	14.6	-10.6pp	10.7	1	—	—	—	—	0.1	0.7	6.4	3.7	52.2	25.4%
Chris Godwin Jr.	WR45	Healthy	9.5	3.6	16.9	27.5	30	75.2	0	14.8 (2)	61.6	5.2	-0.4pp	13.8	2	—	—	—	—	0	0.5	5.7	3.9	47.7	26.2%
Cade Otton	TE19	Healthy	9.3	4.5	14.5	27.5	2	98.1	1	3 (1)	61.6	4.1	-5.7pp	7.1	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	5	3.6	36.1	24.3%
Jalen McMillan	WR69	Healthy	7.7	1.8	15.1	27.5	30	70.3	0	0 (0)	61.6	12.6	-4.4pp	8.4	3	—	—	—	—	0.3	2.1	4.3	2.7	38.3	20.1%
Payne Durham	TE53	Healthy	4.5	0	9.8	27.5	2	23.1	1	0 (0)	61.6	4.4	+0.2pp	2.1	2	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.8	1.3	13.6	9.7%