The Cranked Report — NFL Projections

Week 1, 2026 · real model output · Matchup Score is a real 0-100 score (blue = better, orange = worse); every other stat's color shows that player trending above or below their own normal pace for that specific stat.

Colts (home)

Player	Pos	Status	FPTS ↓	Low	High	Vegas Total	Opp Def Rank	Matchup	RZ Touches	H2H Avg	Team Pace	Target Depth	Share Trend	Home/Road Avg	Depth Chart	Pass Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Targets	Rec	Rec Yds	Anytime TD %
Daniel Jones	QB2	Healthy	21.9	11.9	31.4	26	8	95.8	2	14 (2)	56.8	7.2	0pp	15.2	1	36.5	276.9	1.7	0.8	5.8	29.5	—	—	—	23.1%
Jonathan Taylor	RB6	Healthy	16.8	10.7	23.6	26	21	84.9	3.8	20.7 (2)	56.8	-0.4	+3.6pp	19.9	1	—	—	—	—	18.6	78.5	3.7	2.9	22.6	49.8%
Tyler Warren	TE3	Healthy	14.0	9.2	19.2	26	22	89.8	2	0 (0)	56.8	5.6	+0.1pp	12.3	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.3	5.2	53.3	33.2%
Alec Pierce	WR26	Healthy	11.0	5	18.3	26	8	85.8	1.2	7.3 (1)	56.8	17.1	-6.1pp	8.4	1	—	—	—	—	0	0.6	6.2	3.5	50.9	24.1%
Riley Leonard	QB44	Healthy	8.8	0	18.3	26	8	15.3	1	0 (0)	56.8	7.2	0pp	-1	3	18.2	125.7	0.5	0.7	3.1	13.3	—	—	—	12.9%
Josh Downs	WR61	Healthy	8.0	2.1	15.4	26	8	95.2	0	13.7 (1)	56.8	7.7	+2.3pp	10.5	2	—	—	—	—	0.1	1	5	3.2	40.9	22.4%
Anthony Richardson	QB52	Healthy	7.5	0	17.1	26	8	75	0	0 (0)	56.8	-8	+0.6pp	12.7	2	5.7	63	0.2	0.4	5.2	29	—	—	—	21%
Keenan Allen NEW TEAM	WR112	Healthy	5.0	0	12.3	26	8	85.8	0	14.5 (3)	56.8	7.6	+0.1pp	16.8	3	—	—	—	—	0	0	3.1	2	23.7	14.1%
Mo Alie-Cox	TE51	Healthy	4.8	0	10.1	26	22	45.4	1	7.6 (2)	56.8	7.3	+1.7pp	4	2	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.5	1.8	15.3	12.9%
D.J. Montgomery	WR117	Healthy	4.6	0	11.9	26	8	78.8	0	0 (0)	56.8	6.6	0pp	6.4	8	—	—	—	—	0	0.5	3	1.6	24.4	11.5%
DJ Giddens	RB82	Healthy	4.1	0	10.9	26	21	34.9	1.5	0 (0)	56.8	7.2	+0.5pp	1.1	4	—	—	—	—	4.6	19.5	0.7	0.6	3.9	15.1%

H2H Avg: real fantasy points average vs. this specific opponent, with real career meetings in parentheses. Share Trend: real percentage-point swing in this player's share of team targets, rising (blue) or falling (orange). Home/Road Avg: real career average matching this week's home/away status. A player tagged NEW has zero career games -- their row uses a real draft-capital debut-game baseline, not the main trained model. NEW TEAM means real career games exist, but none with their current team yet -- their projection is adjusted toward a real depth-chart-rank baseline (tested to improve accuracy for exactly this situation).

Ravens (away)

Player	Pos	Status	FPTS ↓	Low	High	Vegas Total	Opp Def Rank	Matchup	RZ Touches	H2H Avg	Team Pace	Target Depth	Share Trend	Home/Road Avg	Depth Chart	Pass Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Targets	Rec	Rec Yds	Anytime TD %
Lamar Jackson	QB26	Healthy	13.7	3.7	23.3	22.5	11	55.6	0	29.6 (3)	58.8	7.2	0pp	20.1	1	19.3	150.7	1.2	0.4	5.3	34	—	—	—	21.4%
Tyler Huntley	QB39	Healthy	11.5	1.5	21.1	22.5	11	47.2	1.6	9.5 (1)	58.8	7.2	0pp	8.5	2	19.2	129.8	0.7	0.4	5.3	25.4	—	—	—	21.4%
Zay Flowers	WR38	Healthy	10.0	4.1	17.3	22.5	5	94.5	0	13 (1)	58.8	11.7	+5.2pp	13.4	1	—	—	—	—	0.4	2.1	5.9	3.9	50	26.9%
Derrick Henry	RB34	Healthy	9.9	3.7	16.7	22.5	25	91.5	0	16 (15)	58.8	1.1	-4.8pp	16.1	1	—	—	—	—	14.7	64.7	0.9	0.6	4.1	38%
Rashod Bateman	WR52	Healthy	8.8	2.9	16.1	22.5	5	57	1.6	1.6 (1)	58.8	14.4	-2.9pp	7.8	2	—	—	—	—	0.1	0.3	4.9	2.8	35.4	20%
Mark Andrews	TE41	Healthy	5.7	0.9	10.9	22.5	14	75.9	0	18.1 (3)	58.8	8.5	+1.5pp	11.4	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.5	2.5	28.2	18%
Skylar Thompson NEW TEAM	QB68	Healthy	5.0	0	14.6	22.5	11	29.2	0	0 (0)	58.8	7.2	0pp	2.9	4	16.6	98.2	0.4	0.5	1.9	6.1	—	—	—	8.3%