The Cranked Report — NFL Projections

Week 1, 2026 · real model output · Matchup Score is a real 0-100 score (blue = better, orange = worse); every other stat's color shows that player trending above or below their own normal pace for that specific stat.

Raiders (home)

Player	Pos	Status	FPTS ↓	Low	High	Vegas Total	Opp Def Rank	Matchup	RZ Touches	H2H Avg	Team Pace	Target Depth	Share Trend	Home/Road Avg	Depth Chart	Pass Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Targets	Rec	Rec Yds	Anytime TD %
Kirk Cousins	QB12	Healthy	17.2	7.2	26.8	18.5	18	66.7	0	13 (3)	48.2	7.2	0pp	17	1	35.2	264.4	1.8	0.8	1.5	3.4	—	—	—	6.5%
Brock Bowers	TE1	Healthy	17.2	12.4	22.4	18.5	10	74.1	2.6	31.3 (1)	48.2	7.4	-1.9pp	13.7	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	9	6.4	67.8	39.2%
Ashton Jeanty	RB20	Healthy	13.5	7.3	20.2	18.5	18	67	1.8	0 (0)	48.2	4	-5.4pp	15.5	1	—	—	—	—	15	63.1	3.4	2.6	18.3	43.3%
Aidan O'Connell	QB29	Healthy	13.3	3.3	22.9	18.5	18	81.9	0	9.1 (1)	48.2	7.2	0pp	11.8	3	32.3	224.3	1.2	0.7	2	5.5	—	—	—	8.5%
Tre Tucker	WR19	Healthy	12.1	6.2	19.4	18.5	7	78.2	1.4	5.8 (2)	48.2	7.9	+0.7pp	7.8	1	—	—	—	—	0.7	3.2	6.5	4.2	51.2	29.8%
Michael Mayer	TE21	Healthy	8.6	3.8	13.8	18.5	10	55.6	1	5.1 (2)	48.2	5.3	+2.9pp	6.3	2	—	—	—	—	—	—	4.7	3.4	32.9	23.6%
Jack Bech	WR76	Healthy	7.2	1.3	14.6	18.5	7	63.6	0	0 (0)	48.2	7.8	+5.8pp	2.3	3	—	—	—	—	0.1	0.6	4.1	2.8	35.9	19.8%
Dont'e Thornton Jr.	WR110	Healthy	5.0	0	12.3	18.5	7	53.6	0	0 (0)	48.2	9.9	-1.1pp	1.7	6	—	—	—	—	0	0.2	3.3	1.8	25.7	13.5%
Jalen Nailor NEW TEAM	WR119	Healthy	4.3	0	11.6	18.5	7	53.6	0	0 (0)	48.2	11.4	+2.7pp	6.6	3	—	—	—	—	0.1	0.6	2.5	1.5	20	11.6%
Ian Thomas	TE79	Healthy	3.3	0	8.5	18.5	10	28.7	0	0 (1)	48.2	5.1	+1.5pp	3.1	3	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.2	1.6	14.4	12.1%

H2H Avg: real fantasy points average vs. this specific opponent, with real career meetings in parentheses. Share Trend: real percentage-point swing in this player's share of team targets, rising (blue) or falling (orange). Home/Road Avg: real career average matching this week's home/away status. A player tagged NEW has zero career games -- their row uses a real draft-capital debut-game baseline, not the main trained model. NEW TEAM means real career games exist, but none with their current team yet -- their projection is adjusted toward a real depth-chart-rank baseline (tested to improve accuracy for exactly this situation).

Dolphins (away)

Player	Pos	Status	FPTS ↓	Low	High	Vegas Total	Opp Def Rank	Matchup	RZ Touches	H2H Avg	Team Pace	Target Depth	Share Trend	Home/Road Avg	Depth Chart	Pass Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Targets	Rec	Rec Yds	Anytime TD %
De'Von Achane	RB3	Healthy	18.2	12	24.9	22	10	85.8	3.4	11 (2)	55.4	0.3	-6pp	16.7	1	—	—	—	—	16.4	80.1	3.9	3.1	24.4	46.6%
Malik Willis	QB36	Healthy	12.0	2	21.6	22	13	6.9	1.4	0 (0)	55.4	7.2	0pp	7.2	1	16.6	128.5	0.8	0.4	5.5	26.7	—	—	—	21.9%
Jaylen Wright	RB37	Healthy	9.7	3.5	16.5	22	10	63.2	1.6	1.6 (1)	55.4	-2.8	0pp	3.8	2	—	—	—	—	9.3	42.4	2.3	1.7	13.1	29.8%
Ollie Gordon II	RB47	Healthy	8.1	2	14.9	22	10	24.5	2.4	0 (0)	55.4	-1.5	-0.3pp	5	3	—	—	—	—	6.8	32.4	2	1.5	11.6	23.7%
Brady Cook NEW TEAM	QB57	Healthy	6.7	0	16.3	22	13	58.3	0	0 (0)	55.4	7.2	0pp	7.3	3	18.2	113.9	0.5	0.5	2	8	—	—	—	8.8%
Malik Washington	WR82	Healthy	6.7	0.8	14	22	18	49.7	1	4.8 (1)	55.4	7.8	-5.8pp	6.1	1	—	—	—	—	0.5	2.9	3.9	2.5	25.3	19.4%
Greg Dulcich	TE47	Healthy	5.2	0.4	10.4	22	18	53.7	0	5.6 (2)	55.4	6.2	-0.2pp	6.4	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.1	2.2	26.1	16%
Ben Sims NEW TEAM	TE61	Healthy	4.2	0	9.4	22	18	22.2	1	2.2 (1)	55.4	4.8	+1.1pp	0.8	6	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.9	1.3	12.1	9.8%
Jalen Tolbert NEW TEAM	WR122	Healthy	4.1	0	11.4	22	18	43	0	0 (1)	55.4	13.9	+0.9pp	5.9	2	—	—	—	—	0	0	2.8	1.6	21.4	11.5%