The Cranked Report — NFL Projections

Week 1, 2026 · real model output · Matchup Score is a real 0-100 score (blue = better, orange = worse); every other stat's color shows that player trending above or below their own normal pace for that specific stat.

Texans (home)

Player	Pos	Status	FPTS ↓	Low	High	Vegas Total	Opp Def Rank	Matchup	RZ Touches	H2H Avg	Team Pace	Target Depth	Share Trend	Home/Road Avg	Depth Chart	Pass Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Targets	Rec	Rec Yds	Anytime TD %
C.J. Stroud	QB9	Healthy	17.9	7.9	27.5	23	23	52.8	1.4	15.9 (1)	61.4	7.2	0pp	17.2	1	31.5	234.5	1.5	0.6	4.5	18.8	—	—	—	18.4%
Woody Marks	RB16	Healthy	14.1	7.9	20.9	23	16	83	4.2	7.9 (1)	61.4	1.2	+1.8pp	10.9	3	—	—	—	—	17	68.7	3	2.2	16.1	45.8%
Davis Mills	QB30	Healthy	13.3	3.3	22.9	23	23	45.8	0	5.1 (2)	61.4	7.2	0pp	12.7	2	30.6	204.9	1.3	0.8	2.3	9.8	—	—	—	10.1%
Jayden Higgins	WR33	Healthy	10.9	5	18.2	23	31	31.5	2	13.8 (1)	61.4	12.1	-6.6pp	7.9	7	—	—	—	—	0.2	1.2	5.5	3.4	42	23.5%
Nico Collins	WR35	Healthy	10.2	4.3	17.5	23	31	49.1	0	12.2 (2)	61.4	14.4	-1.3pp	15.8	1	—	—	—	—	0.1	1.1	5.7	3.4	52.1	23.3%
David Montgomery	RB42	Healthy	9.0	2.8	15.8	23	16	50	2.2	9 (2)	61.4	1.1	-1.1pp	13.1	1	—	—	—	—	9	37.9	1.8	1.4	11.8	28.4%
Tank Dell	WR65	Healthy	7.8	1.9	15.2	23	31	45.5	0	7.3 (1)	61.4	15.9	-6.5pp	13.4	2	—	—	—	—	0.5	2.7	4.4	2.6	39.3	20.2%
Dalton Schultz	TE28	Healthy	7.1	2.3	12.3	23	21	87	0	4.6 (2)	61.4	3.7	+0.8pp	9.4	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	4.8	3.5	33.5	23.7%
Xavier Hutchinson	WR78	Healthy	7.0	1.1	14.3	23	31	29.1	1.4	3 (2)	61.4	10	-0.8pp	3.7	4	—	—	—	—	0.3	1.7	3.6	2.2	25.9	16.8%
Brevin Jordan	TE73	Healthy	3.7	0	9	23	21	50	0	0 (0)	61.4	2.9	-1.3pp	5	5	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.4	1.7	17.6	12.6%
Kayshon Boutte NEW TEAM	WR136	Healthy	3.6	0	10.9	23	31	21.8	0	14.1 (4)	61.4	17.9	-1.7pp	8.8	4	—	—	—	—	0	0.5	2	1.2	17	9.3%
Cade Stover	TE81	Healthy	3.2	0	8.4	23	21	57.4	0	1.3 (2)	61.4	2.2	+1.6pp	3.4	3	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.2	1.6	13.5	12%
Jaylin Noel	WR146	Healthy	3.1	0	10.4	23	31	12.1	0	1.9 (1)	61.4	4.6	-0.5pp	2.6	1	—	—	—	—	0.3	2	1.6	1.1	13.7	9.5%

H2H Avg: real fantasy points average vs. this specific opponent, with real career meetings in parentheses. Share Trend: real percentage-point swing in this player's share of team targets, rising (blue) or falling (orange). Home/Road Avg: real career average matching this week's home/away status. A player tagged NEW has zero career games -- their row uses a real draft-capital debut-game baseline, not the main trained model. NEW TEAM means real career games exist, but none with their current team yet -- their projection is adjusted toward a real depth-chart-rank baseline (tested to improve accuracy for exactly this situation).

Bills (away)

Player	Pos	Status	FPTS ↓	Low	High	Vegas Total	Opp Def Rank	Matchup	RZ Touches	H2H Avg	Team Pace	Target Depth	Share Trend	Home/Road Avg	Depth Chart	Pass Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Targets	Rec	Rec Yds	Anytime TD %
Josh Allen	QB3	Healthy	21.8	11.8	31.4	21.5	21	56.9	1.8	12 (4)	63	7.2	0pp	22.6	1	32.5	235	1.7	0.7	7.5	38.5	—	—	—	28.8%
Dawson Knox	TE14	Healthy	10.4	5.6	15.6	21.5	6	91.7	1.8	12.7 (2)	63	5.2	-0.8pp	6.8	2	—	—	—	—	—	—	5.3	3.7	37.4	25.4%
Khalil Shakir	WR41	Healthy	9.7	3.8	17.1	21.5	24	54.5	1	17 (1)	63	2.9	-2.1pp	9.2	1	—	—	—	—	0.1	0.7	5.3	3.6	42.1	24.9%
Ty Johnson	RB41	Healthy	9.1	2.9	15.9	21.5	23	32.1	1.8	4.6 (3)	63	-1.6	-1.8pp	4.6	2	—	—	—	—	6	24.8	3.3	2.5	18.7	24.7%
DJ Moore	WR55	Healthy	8.5	2.6	15.8	21.5	24	52.7	0	13.1 (3)	63	12.7	+2.1pp	13.1	1	—	—	—	—	0.3	1.5	5.1	3.1	43.1	22.5%
Josh Palmer	WR57	Healthy	8.4	2.5	15.7	21.5	24	36.4	1.4	7.6 (3)	63	8.2	-3.1pp	8.6	4	—	—	—	—	0.1	0.6	4.5	2.8	33.9	20.2%
Keon Coleman	WR63	Healthy	8.0	2	15.3	21.5	24	44.2	1	11.9 (1)	63	8.8	-1.9pp	7.9	3	—	—	—	—	0.1	0.6	4.4	2.7	33.8	19.2%
James Cook	RB56	Healthy	6.8	0.6	13.6	21.5	23	73.6	0	19.9 (2)	63	7.2	+0.7pp	15.2	1	—	—	—	—	12	48.5	1	0.6	5.4	32.6%
Dalton Kincaid	TE43	Healthy	5.6	0.8	10.8	21.5	6	85.2	0	5.4 (1)	63	11.5	-1pp	7.9	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.6	2.5	29.4	18.1%
Ray Davis	RB70	Healthy	5.0	0	11.8	21.5	23	23.6	1.2	3.7 (2)	63	0.5	+3.1pp	5.2	1	—	—	—	—	4.1	16.1	1.6	1.2	10.2	15.8%
Tyrell Shavers	WR116	Healthy	4.7	0	12	21.5	24	21.2	0	0 (0)	63	12.7	+2.9pp	3.1	6	—	—	—	—	0	0.4	2.6	1.5	24.1	10.9%
Jackson Hawes	TE80	Healthy	3.3	0	8.5	21.5	6	41.7	0	4.6 (1)	63	2.6	-0.7pp	4	3	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.9	1.3	15.6	10%