The Cranked Report — NFL Projections

Week 1, 2026 · real model output · Matchup Score is a real 0-100 score (blue = better, orange = worse); every other stat's color shows that player trending above or below their own normal pace for that specific stat.

Jaguars (home)

Player	Pos	Status	FPTS ↓	Low	High	Vegas Total	Opp Def Rank	Matchup	RZ Touches	H2H Avg	Team Pace	Target Depth	Share Trend	Home/Road Avg	Depth Chart	Pass Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Targets	Rec	Rec Yds	Anytime TD %
Trevor Lawrence	QB17	Healthy	15.9	5.9	25.5	16.5	24	26.4	0	15.3 (2)	61.4	7.2	0pp	16.2	1	27.1	202.4	1.7	0.7	3.4	15.4	—	—	—	14.2%
Brenton Strange	TE12	Healthy	10.8	6	16.1	16.5	16	50.9	1.8	9.5 (1)	61.4	8.3	-1.4pp	7.1	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	5.3	3.7	39.6	25.4%
Parker Washington	WR39	Healthy	9.9	4	17.2	16.5	28	33.3	0	4.4 (2)	61.4	14.7	+1pp	8.6	1	—	—	—	—	0.1	1	5.4	3.5	50	24%
Jakobi Meyers	WR43	Healthy	9.6	3.7	16.9	16.5	28	40	0	9.1 (4)	61.4	9.3	+0.5pp	12.9	3	—	—	—	—	0.3	1.8	5.7	3.8	48	26.3%
Brian Thomas Jr.	WR44	Healthy	9.6	3.7	17	16.5	28	27.9	0	11.4 (1)	61.4	16.6	-1.1pp	15.3	1	—	—	—	—	0.2	1.1	5.4	3.3	49.7	23.4%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. NEW TEAM	RB50	Healthy	7.9	1.7	14.7	16.5	5	54.7	3.2	0 (0)	61.4	2.8	+1.1pp	7.3	2	—	—	—	—	7.9	34.1	1	0.7	6.4	23.8%
Quinn Ewers NEW TEAM	QB56	Healthy	6.8	0	16.4	16.5	24	9.7	0	2.1 (1)	61.4	7.2	0pp	11.3	2	16.1	110.4	0.6	0.5	2.2	6	—	—	—	9.5%
Bhayshul Tuten	RB65	Healthy	5.8	0	12.6	16.5	5	36.8	2.4	0 (0)	61.4	7.2	-0.3pp	5.8	1	—	—	—	—	7.2	31.7	0.2	0	2.1	19.9%
Quintin Morris	TE70	Healthy	3.8	0	9	16.5	16	14.8	1	0 (0)	61.4	4.5	-0.6pp	2.8	4	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.5	1.1	9.1	8.3%

H2H Avg: real fantasy points average vs. this specific opponent, with real career meetings in parentheses. Share Trend: real percentage-point swing in this player's share of team targets, rising (blue) or falling (orange). Home/Road Avg: real career average matching this week's home/away status. A player tagged NEW has zero career games -- their row uses a real draft-capital debut-game baseline, not the main trained model. NEW TEAM means real career games exist, but none with their current team yet -- their projection is adjusted toward a real depth-chart-rank baseline (tested to improve accuracy for exactly this situation).

Browns (away)

Player	Pos	Status	FPTS ↓	Low	High	Vegas Total	Opp Def Rank	Matchup	RZ Touches	H2H Avg	Team Pace	Target Depth	Share Trend	Home/Road Avg	Depth Chart	Pass Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Targets	Rec	Rec Yds	Anytime TD %
Quinshon Judkins	RB27	Healthy	12.3	6.1	19.1	24	24	67.9	2.2	0 (0)	59.2	-1.5	+3.7pp	10.3	1	—	—	—	—	14.9	57.8	3.1	2.4	17.3	42.6%
Deshaun Watson	QB37	Healthy	11.7	1.7	21.3	24	30	73.6	0	17 (8)	59.2	7.2	0pp	18.4	1	29	183.2	1	0.8	4	20	—	—	—	16.4%
Harold Fannin Jr.	TE17	Healthy	9.8	5	15.1	24	21	80.6	0	0 (0)	59.2	4.7	+4.9pp	10.9	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.5	4.6	48.3	30.1%
Shedeur Sanders	QB47	Healthy	8.5	0	18.1	24	30	63.9	0	0 (0)	59.2	7.2	0pp	6.3	2	25.3	149.3	0.6	0.8	3.6	20.7	—	—	—	15%
Jerry Jeudy	WR66	Healthy	7.8	1.9	15.2	24	20	65.5	0	15.3 (2)	59.2	12.5	-2pp	11	1	—	—	—	—	0	0	5.4	3.2	40.8	21.7%
Raheim Sanders	RB51	Healthy	7.7	1.5	14.5	24	24	37.7	3	0 (0)	59.2	4.8	0pp	4.3	3	—	—	—	—	9.5	38.2	1.2	0.9	7	28%
Dylan Sampson	RB59	Healthy	6.5	0.3	13.3	24	24	34	0	0 (0)	59.2	-1	+0.1pp	6.6	2	—	—	—	—	5.1	17	3.2	2.4	19.2	22.2%
Malachi Corley	WR94	Healthy	5.5	0	12.9	24	20	37.3	1.2	0 (0)	59.2	0.4	+2.6pp	2.8	1	—	—	—	—	0.9	4.7	2.9	2	16.9	17.4%
Isaiah Bond	WR120	Healthy	4.2	0	11.6	24	20	37.3	0	0 (0)	59.2	25.4	-1.6pp	5.1	1	—	—	—	—	0.2	1.1	2.6	1.2	22.4	9.5%
Dillon Gabriel	QB73	Healthy	4.0	0	13.5	24	30	30.6	0	0 (0)	59.2	7.2	0pp	10.1	4	16.5	84.8	0.4	0.7	2.1	9.4	—	—	—	8.9%