The Cranked Report — NFL Projections

Week 1, 2026 · real model output · Matchup Score is a real 0-100 score (blue = better, orange = worse); every other stat's color shows that player trending above or below their own normal pace for that specific stat.

Chargers (home)

Player	Pos	Status	FPTS ↓	Low	High	Vegas Total	Opp Def Rank	Matchup	RZ Touches	H2H Avg	Team Pace	Target Depth	Share Trend	Home/Road Avg	Depth Chart	Pass Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Targets	Rec	Rec Yds	Anytime TD %
Omarion Hampton	RB7	Healthy	16.0	9.8	22.8	18	1	84	3.2	0 (0)	63.6	-1.2	-3.4pp	18.2	1	—	—	—	—	15.7	72.8	3.3	2.7	20.3	44.5%
Justin Herbert	QB21	Healthy	15.5	5.5	25.1	18	7	48.6	0	21.8 (2)	63.6	7.2	0pp	19	1	28	210.6	1.5	0.4	3.3	14.1	—	—	—	13.7%
Ladd McConkey	WR13	Healthy	14.6	8.7	21.9	18	19	58.5	2.2	9.6 (1)	63.6	11.8	-4.2pp	14.5	4	—	—	—	—	0.2	0.8	7.3	4.8	60	31.6%
Quentin Johnston	WR23	Healthy	11.6	5.7	18.9	18	19	58.5	1.6	0 (0)	63.6	9.9	-1.7pp	8.6	2	—	—	—	—	0.1	0.7	5.8	3.8	48.8	25.9%
David Njoku NEW TEAM	TE16	Healthy	10.1	5.2	15.3	18	9	70.4	1.6	7.1 (2)	63.6	3.3	-5.9pp	8.5	2	—	—	—	—	—	—	4.7	3.5	36.7	23.8%
Tre Harris	WR58	Healthy	8.3	2.4	15.6	18	19	47.3	1	0 (0)	63.6	8.3	+3.2pp	3.9	3	—	—	—	—	0.3	1.9	4	2.8	34.1	20.7%
Kimani Vidal	RB55	Healthy	7.0	0.9	13.8	18	1	77.4	0	2.9 (1)	63.6	-1.8	+0.1pp	9.8	3	—	—	—	—	7.6	32.3	2.3	1.8	13.4	26.4%
Oronde Gadsden II	TE33	Healthy	6.9	2.1	12.2	18	9	72.2	0	0 (0)	63.6	10.7	-1.3pp	10.3	3	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.8	2.6	35.3	18.3%
Keaton Mitchell NEW TEAM	RB71	Healthy	5.0	0	11.8	18	1	61.3	0	0 (0)	63.6	7.2	+0.4pp	5.9	2	—	—	—	—	5.9	27.8	0.2	0.1	2.7	17%
Trey Lance	QB69	Healthy	4.9	0	14.4	18	7	13.9	0	14.6 (1)	63.6	7.2	0pp	8.1	2	6.5	55	0.4	0.1	3	13.1	—	—	—	12.7%

H2H Avg: real fantasy points average vs. this specific opponent, with real career meetings in parentheses. Share Trend: real percentage-point swing in this player's share of team targets, rising (blue) or falling (orange). Home/Road Avg: real career average matching this week's home/away status. A player tagged NEW has zero career games -- their row uses a real draft-capital debut-game baseline, not the main trained model. NEW TEAM means real career games exist, but none with their current team yet -- their projection is adjusted toward a real depth-chart-rank baseline (tested to improve accuracy for exactly this situation).

Cardinals (away)

Player	Pos	Status	FPTS ↓	Low	High	Vegas Total	Opp Def Rank	Matchup	RZ Touches	H2H Avg	Team Pace	Target Depth	Share Trend	Home/Road Avg	Depth Chart	Pass Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Targets	Rec	Rec Yds	Anytime TD %
Michael Wilson	WR9	Healthy	15.9	10	23.3	28.5	11	98.2	2.4	2.5 (1)	59	13.3	-2.9pp	10.2	2	—	—	—	—	0.2	0.7	8.9	5.4	66.9	34.5%
Jacoby Brissett	QB25	Healthy	13.8	3.8	23.4	28.5	26	97.2	0	10.3 (3)	59	7.2	0pp	10.6	1	32.8	221.5	1.4	0.9	2.2	12.1	—	—	—	9.6%
Trey McBride	TE11	Healthy	11.0	6.2	16.2	28.5	15	99.1	0	5.6 (2)	59	7	+6.1pp	14	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	7.4	5.3	55	34.1%
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR54	Healthy	8.7	2.7	16	28.5	11	97.6	0	5.1 (1)	59	15.9	-0.6pp	11.2	1	—	—	—	—	0	0	5.6	3.1	46.2	21.5%
Trey Benson	RB44	Healthy	8.5	2.3	15.3	28.5	32	48.1	0	0 (0)	59	-2.7	+6.8pp	4	5	—	—	—	—	8.4	33.3	3.3	2.5	18.5	30.1%
James Conner	RB48	Healthy	8.1	1.9	14.8	28.5	32	71.7	0	22.9 (4)	59	-1.6	-3pp	13.3	4	—	—	—	—	8	29.1	3.1	2.4	17.5	28.8%
Hunter Long NEW TEAM	TE30	Healthy	7.1	2.3	12.4	28.5	15	79.6	1.5	0 (0)	59	3.5	+1.5pp	2.6	3	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.5	2.5	21.3	17.5%
Tyler Allgeier NEW TEAM	RB61	Healthy	6.2	0	12.9	28.5	32	57.5	0	8.2 (2)	59	-2.5	-2.6pp	7.5	2	—	—	—	—	6.8	27.2	2.2	1.7	10.9	24%
Bam Knight	RB74	Healthy	4.7	0	11.5	28.5	32	66	0	0 (0)	59	7.2	+1.8pp	9	3	—	—	—	—	6.3	21.2	1.8	1.3	9.8	21.9%
Kendrick Bourne NEW TEAM	WR121	Healthy	4.1	0	11.4	28.5	11	60	0	7.5 (3)	59	15.6	+1.4pp	7	3	—	—	—	—	0	0	2.5	1.6	19.8	11.4%
Elijah Higgins	TE71	Healthy	3.8	0	9	28.5	15	82.4	0	1.1 (1)	59	5	+5pp	3	2	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.6	1.9	17.4	13.5%
Gardner Minshew NEW TEAM	QB77	Healthy	3.2	0	12.8	28.5	26	34.7	0	10.6 (4)	59	7.2	0pp	13.1	2	14.3	76.6	0.3	0.5	1.5	3.7	—	—	—	6.7%