The Cranked Report — NFL Projections

Week 1, 2026 · real model output · Matchup Score is a real 0-100 score (blue = better, orange = worse); every other stat's color shows that player trending above or below their own normal pace for that specific stat.

Giants (home)

Player	Pos	Status	FPTS ↓	Low	High	Vegas Total	Opp Def Rank	Matchup	RZ Touches	H2H Avg	Team Pace	Target Depth	Share Trend	Home/Road Avg	Depth Chart	Pass Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Targets	Rec	Rec Yds	Anytime TD %
Jaxson Dart	QB5	Healthy	19.8	9.8	29.3	25.5	3	86.1	2	10 (2)	61	7.2	0pp	16.2	1	30.5	221.3	1.3	0.6	7	38.2	—	—	—	27%
Cam Skattebo	RB4	Healthy	18.0	11.8	24.8	25.5	11	76.4	4	13.9 (1)	61	-1.8	+1.1pp	22.7	1	—	—	—	—	16.6	70.9	4.9	3.9	29.8	48.7%
Tyrone Tracy Jr.	RB17	Healthy	14.1	7.9	20.9	25.5	11	70.8	3.6	13.6 (4)	61	1.8	+0.9pp	11.7	2	—	—	—	—	14.9	63	3.1	2.5	18.3	42.9%
Jameis Winston	QB28	Healthy	13.5	3.5	23.1	25.5	3	98.6	0	12.7 (2)	61	7.2	+0.6pp	14.5	2	27.7	204.3	1.5	0.7	2.4	10.1	—	—	—	10.2%
Theo Johnson	TE5	Healthy	12.8	8	18.1	25.5	28	78.7	1.8	6.5 (3)	61	11.4	+0.2pp	6.2	2	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.5	4.6	49.8	30.3%
Malik Nabers	WR17	Healthy	12.5	6.6	19.8	25.5	1	99.4	0	25.4 (3)	61	13.5	-1.3pp	15.7	1	—	—	—	—	0	0.5	7.8	4.8	64.7	30.9%
Darius Slayton	WR51	Healthy	9.0	3.1	16.3	25.5	1	87.6	1	7.2 (11)	61	14.6	+1.7pp	7.9	2	—	—	—	—	0	0.4	5.1	3	40.7	21%
Devin Singletary	RB45	Healthy	8.3	2.1	15.1	25.5	11	55.7	3	7.6 (5)	61	7.2	+1.1pp	8.9	3	—	—	—	—	9.2	39.9	0.6	0.6	6.4	26.4%
Darnell Mooney NEW TEAM	WR92	Healthy	5.6	0	12.9	25.5	1	87.6	1.4	15.9 (2)	61	11.3	-5.3pp	10.3	3	—	—	—	—	0.1	0.7	3.2	2	24.8	14.6%
Isaiah Likely	TE42	Healthy	5.6	0.7	10.8	25.5	28	64.8	0	1.4 (1)	61	8.7	-2.9pp	6.1	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.4	2.5	28.2	17.5%
Calvin Austin III NEW TEAM	WR106	Healthy	5.4	0	12.7	25.5	1	63	1	1.6 (1)	61	9.5	-6.3pp	4.8	2	—	—	—	—	0.2	1	2.6	1.7	20.4	12.7%
Najee Harris NEW TEAM	RB81	Healthy	4.2	0	10.9	25.5	11	51.9	0	9.7 (1)	61	7.2	+1.2pp	13.7	3	—	—	—	—	4.4	18	0.5	0.5	5.4	14.4%
Chris Manhertz	TE66	Healthy	4.0	0	9.2	25.5	28	16.7	1	0 (4)	61	3.2	-1.1pp	1.5	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.5	1.2	9.4	8.9%
Odell Beckham Jr.	WR134	Healthy	3.6	0	10.9	25.5	1	77.6	0	19.6 (4)	61	8.8	+0.5pp	13.2	5	—	—	—	—	0	0.3	2.3	1.4	18.6	10.2%

H2H Avg: real fantasy points average vs. this specific opponent, with real career meetings in parentheses. Share Trend: real percentage-point swing in this player's share of team targets, rising (blue) or falling (orange). Home/Road Avg: real career average matching this week's home/away status. A player tagged NEW has zero career games -- their row uses a real draft-capital debut-game baseline, not the main trained model. NEW TEAM means real career games exist, but none with their current team yet -- their projection is adjusted toward a real depth-chart-rank baseline (tested to improve accuracy for exactly this situation).

Cowboys (away)

Player	Pos	Status	FPTS ↓	Low	High	Vegas Total	Opp Def Rank	Matchup	RZ Touches	H2H Avg	Team Pace	Target Depth	Share Trend	Home/Road Avg	Depth Chart	Pass Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Targets	Rec	Rec Yds	Anytime TD %
George Pickens	WR6	Healthy	16.9	11	24.2	23	16	90.3	2.2	10.4 (3)	70.4	9.8	-5.1pp	11.4	2	—	—	—	—	0.2	0.8	8.8	5.6	74.3	35.7%
Dak Prescott	QB20	Healthy	15.6	5.6	25.2	23	22	88.9	0	18.1 (17)	70.4	7.2	0pp	16.3	1	33	244.7	1.7	0.6	2.1	7.6	—	—	—	9.1%
Javonte Williams	RB19	Healthy	13.5	7.3	20.3	23	12	94.3	3.8	15 (2)	70.4	-2.1	+0.2pp	12	1	—	—	—	—	13.9	60	3	2.3	17.7	40.7%
CeeDee Lamb	WR20	Healthy	12.0	6.1	19.3	23	16	92.1	0	16.9 (12)	70.4	11.8	+0.3pp	16.6	1	—	—	—	—	0.1	0.6	7.2	4.7	62.2	30.8%
Jake Ferguson	TE15	Healthy	10.3	5.4	15.5	23	26	68.5	2	8.3 (7)	70.4	6.5	-4.3pp	8.9	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	5.1	3.7	35.9	25.3%
Sam Howell NEW TEAM	QB61	Healthy	6.3	0	15.9	23	22	50	0	13.6 (2)	70.4	7.2	+0.7pp	14.9	2	17	109	0.5	0.5	2	6.5	—	—	—	8.8%
Malik Davis	RB62	Healthy	6.1	0	12.9	23	12	53.8	1.8	0 (0)	70.4	0.5	+1.8pp	3.6	2	—	—	—	—	5.9	25.6	1.5	1.2	9.1	20.5%
Ryan Flournoy	WR107	Healthy	5.3	0	12.7	23	16	75.8	0	5.9 (2)	70.4	11	+6.9pp	8	3	—	—	—	—	0	0.4	3.2	2.1	24.7	15.4%
Hunter Luepke	RB73	Healthy	4.8	0	11.6	23	12	40.6	1	1.8 (4)	70.4	1	+1.5pp	2.3	1	—	—	—	—	3.4	15.5	1.8	1.5	10.7	14.9%
Emari Demercado NEW TEAM	RB80	Healthy	4.4	0	11.2	23	12	62.3	0	2.5 (1)	70.4	-0.7	+1.6pp	4.7	3	—	—	—	—	3.9	16.6	1.6	1.2	8.8	15.3%