The Cranked Report — NFL Projections

Week 1, 2026 · real model output · Matchup Score is a real 0-100 score (blue = better, orange = worse); every other stat's color shows that player trending above or below their own normal pace for that specific stat.

Seahawks (home)

Player	Pos	Status	FPTS ↓	Low	High	Vegas Total	Opp Def Rank	Matchup	RZ Touches	H2H Avg	Team Pace	Target Depth	Share Trend	Home/Road Avg	Depth Chart	Pass Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Targets	Rec	Rec Yds	Anytime TD %
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR15	Healthy	13.6	7.7	20.9	20.5	22	50.9	0	23.7 (1)	62.2	7.2	+2.9pp	15.6	1	—	—	—	—	0.2	0.8	7.7	5.2	68	33.4%
Sam Darnold	QB32	Healthy	12.8	2.8	22.4	20.5	25	37.5	0	3.4 (4)	62.2	7.2	0pp	14.1	1	27.3	191.7	1.4	0.6	2.1	5.9	—	—	—	9.2%
Zach Charbonnet	RB25	Healthy	12.4	6.2	19.2	20.5	8	78.3	3.4	17.9 (1)	62.2	1.8	+3.1pp	9.9	4	—	—	—	—	12.8	57.2	2.2	1.6	12.8	36.8%
Cooper Kupp	WR24	Healthy	11.6	5.7	18.9	20.5	22	32.7	1.6	21.5 (2)	62.2	7.1	-0.1pp	16.2	3	—	—	—	—	0.1	0.2	6.4	4.1	47.8	27.6%
Tory Horton	WR84	Healthy	6.5	0.6	13.8	20.5	22	23	1	0 (0)	62.2	20.5	-0.9pp	10.4	2	—	—	—	—	0.1	0.3	3.5	1.8	25.2	13.2%
AJ Barner	TE39	Healthy	5.8	1	11	20.5	17	69.4	0	0 (1)	62.2	3.5	+0.6pp	6	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.9	2.8	29.7	19.4%
Emanuel Wilson NEW TEAM	RB69	Healthy	5.0	0	11.8	20.5	8	45.3	2.4	0 (0)	62.2	-0.3	-1.2pp	5.1	3	—	—	—	—	5	21.9	1.4	1	7.3	17.7%
Eric Saubert	TE48	Healthy	4.9	0.1	10.1	20.5	17	15.7	1.4	0 (0)	62.2	5	+1.6pp	1.8	2	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.2	1.5	11.8	10.9%
Rashid Shaheed	WR114	Healthy	4.8	0	12.2	20.5	22	30.3	0	5.8 (2)	62.2	8.5	-1.4pp	9.3	1	—	—	—	—	0.5	3	2.7	1.7	22.2	14.2%
George Holani	RB78	Healthy	4.5	0	11.2	20.5	8	25.5	3	0 (0)	62.2	7.2	-1.2pp	2.4	3	—	—	—	—	6.5	28.2	0	0	0	18.2%
Jalen Milroe	QB84	Healthy	3.1	0	12.7	20.5	25	1.4	0	0 (0)	62.2	7.2	0pp	-0.8	3	8.4	49.5	0.3	0.3	2.1	6.8	—	—	—	9.2%

H2H Avg: real fantasy points average vs. this specific opponent, with real career meetings in parentheses. Share Trend: real percentage-point swing in this player's share of team targets, rising (blue) or falling (orange). Home/Road Avg: real career average matching this week's home/away status. A player tagged NEW has zero career games -- their row uses a real draft-capital debut-game baseline, not the main trained model. NEW TEAM means real career games exist, but none with their current team yet -- their projection is adjusted toward a real depth-chart-rank baseline (tested to improve accuracy for exactly this situation).

Patriots (away)

Player	Pos	Status	FPTS ↓	Low	High	Vegas Total	Opp Def Rank	Matchup	RZ Touches	H2H Avg	Team Pace	Target Depth	Share Trend	Home/Road Avg	Depth Chart	Pass Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Targets	Rec	Rec Yds	Anytime TD %
Drake Maye	QB8	Healthy	18.0	8	27.6	24	31	72.2	1.2	0 (0)	59.6	7.2	0pp	19.7	1	28.9	217.3	1.5	0.8	5.8	31	—	—	—	23.1%
A.J. Brown	WR7	Healthy	16.8	10.9	24.1	24	27	74.5	1.8	9 (2)	59.6	12.3	-0.4pp	15.9	1	—	—	—	—	0.1	0.5	9.3	5.9	75.8	36.9%
Hunter Henry	TE4	Healthy	13.1	8.3	18.3	24	19	88	2.4	18.9 (1)	59.6	8.2	-4.2pp	9.7	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.4	4.6	47	30.4%
TreVeyon Henderson	RB30	Healthy	11.3	5.1	18.1	24	27	72.6	2.8	0 (0)	59.6	7.2	-4.8pp	8.2	2	—	—	—	—	13.2	60.5	1.5	1.2	8.4	36.5%
Rhamondre Stevenson	RB38	Healthy	9.7	3.5	16.5	24	27	59.4	2.2	17 (1)	59.6	4.4	+3.8pp	11.6	1	—	—	—	—	9	38.4	2.3	1.8	13	29.5%
Tommy DeVito NEW TEAM	QB58	Healthy	6.6	0	16.2	24	31	33.3	0	0 (0)	59.6	7.2	0pp	11.6	2	16.7	105.8	0.5	0.5	2.5	10.2	—	—	—	10.8%
Romeo Doubs NEW TEAM	WR93	Healthy	5.6	0	13	24	27	46.7	0	19 (1)	59.6	12.7	-3.8pp	10.5	2	—	—	—	—	0	0.1	3.4	2.1	26	14.7%
Mack Hollins	WR111	Healthy	5.0	0	12.3	24	27	67.3	0	6.1 (3)	59.6	15.7	+2.2pp	5	4	—	—	—	—	0	0	3.8	2.1	26.6	15%
Kyle Williams	WR115	Healthy	4.8	0	12.1	24	27	25.2	0	0 (0)	59.6	7.2	+2.4pp	5.8	1	—	—	—	—	0.1	0.7	3.1	1.7	23.3	12.9%
Corey Kiner NEW TEAM	RB85	Healthy	3.6	0	10.4	24	27	27.4	2	0 (0)	59.6	7.2	0pp	2.5	3	—	—	—	—	4	17.1	0	0	0.1	11.7%
DeMario Douglas	WR143	Healthy	3.3	0	10.6	24	27	25.2	0	0 (0)	59.6	12.4	-3.6pp	7.1	2	—	—	—	—	0.3	1.5	2.2	1.4	15	11.3%