The Cranked Report — NFL Projections

Week 1, 2026 · real model output · Matchup Score is a real 0-100 score (blue = better, orange = worse); every other stat's color shows that player trending above or below their own normal pace for that specific stat.

Rams (home)

Player	Pos	Status	FPTS ↓	Low	High	Vegas Total	Opp Def Rank	Matchup	RZ Touches	H2H Avg	Team Pace	Target Depth	Share Trend	Home/Road Avg	Depth Chart	Pass Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Targets	Rec	Rec Yds	Anytime TD %
Puka Nacua	WR1	Healthy	21.7	15.8	29	22.5	21	84.2	1.8	20.8 (5)	72.8	11	+0.2pp	22.8	1	—	—	—	—	0.6	3.2	10.9	7.4	98.6	45%
Matthew Stafford	QB19	Healthy	15.7	5.7	25.3	22.5	20	76.4	0	16.4 (10)	72.8	7.2	0pp	17.5	1	32.7	251.6	1.8	0.7	0.9	0	—	—	—	4.2%
Kyren Williams	RB12	Healthy	14.9	8.7	21.7	22.5	17	58.5	3.6	25.3 (5)	72.8	0.7	+1.2pp	16.2	2	—	—	—	—	15.6	69.8	2.9	2.3	17.1	43.6%
Davante Adams	WR14	Healthy	13.7	7.8	21	22.5	21	77	2	26.7 (7)	72.8	11.6	-4pp	18	2	—	—	—	—	0	0	7.2	4.7	58	30.5%
Colby Parkinson	TE9	Healthy	12.4	7.6	17.7	22.5	11	95.4	2.4	5.1 (7)	72.8	4.6	+1.1pp	5.2	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	5.9	4.2	41.6	28.1%
Blake Corum	RB52	Healthy	7.6	1.4	14.4	22.5	17	41.5	2.2	3.6 (3)	72.8	2.8	-0.5pp	3.5	4	—	—	—	—	7.9	36.3	1	0.8	6.5	24%
Tyler Higbee	TE25	Healthy	7.5	2.7	12.7	22.5	11	90.7	1.2	7.8 (15)	72.8	3.8	-2pp	7.5	2	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.8	2.8	26.2	19.5%
Davis Allen	TE55	Healthy	4.4	0	9.7	22.5	11	83.3	0	4.9 (4)	72.8	1	+1pp	3.2	5	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.7	2	20	14.5%
Konata Mumpfield	WR123	Healthy	4.1	0	11.4	22.5	21	48.5	0	0 (1)	72.8	16.1	+4.7pp	1.5	4	—	—	—	—	0	0.2	2.7	1.5	21.2	10.7%
Tutu Atwell	WR125	Healthy	4.0	0	11.3	22.5	21	29.7	0	8.7 (5)	72.8	22.8	-0.9pp	6.2	5	—	—	—	—	0	0.4	2.1	1.2	21.4	8.8%
Terrance Ferguson	TE67	Healthy	3.9	0	9.2	22.5	11	62	0	3.6 (2)	72.8	13.8	-1.6pp	3	3	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.3	1.3	19	9.7%
Xavier Smith	WR127	Healthy	3.8	0	11.1	22.5	21	40.6	0	0.6 (4)	72.8	14.5	0pp	1.2	1	—	—	—	—	0.1	0.6	2	1.3	19.7	9.7%

H2H Avg: real fantasy points average vs. this specific opponent, with real career meetings in parentheses. Share Trend: real percentage-point swing in this player's share of team targets, rising (blue) or falling (orange). Home/Road Avg: real career average matching this week's home/away status. A player tagged NEW has zero career games -- their row uses a real draft-capital debut-game baseline, not the main trained model. NEW TEAM means real career games exist, but none with their current team yet -- their projection is adjusted toward a real depth-chart-rank baseline (tested to improve accuracy for exactly this situation).

49ers (away)

Player	Pos	Status	FPTS ↓	Low	High	Vegas Total	Opp Def Rank	Matchup	RZ Touches	H2H Avg	Team Pace	Target Depth	Share Trend	Home/Road Avg	Depth Chart	Pass Att	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Att	Rush Yds	Targets	Rec	Rec Yds	Anytime TD %
Christian McCaffrey	RB1	Healthy	26.0	19.8	32.7	26	3	100	7.8	29 (6)	59.6	2	-4.8pp	22	1	—	—	—	—	23.5	107.3	6	4.7	33.8	59.8%
Brock Purdy	QB13	Healthy	16.8	6.8	26.4	26	9	91.7	0	14.8 (3)	59.6	7.2	0pp	17.6	1	32.1	237.2	1.7	1	3.7	20.3	—	—	—	15.5%
Mike Evans	WR40	Healthy	9.8	3.9	17.2	26	3	98.8	0	18.3 (5)	59.6	14.2	+0.9pp	14.8	1	—	—	—	—	0	0	5.9	3.5	53.8	23.9%
George Kittle	TE18	Healthy	9.4	4.6	14.7	26	30	76.9	0	14.7 (14)	59.6	8.2	+2.3pp	13	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	5.1	3.8	46.9	26%
Deebo Samuel Sr.	WR59	Healthy	8.2	2.3	15.6	26	3	97	0	17.8 (10)	59.6	5.4	-0.9pp	16.5	1	—	—	—	—	1.1	4.9	4.6	3.1	39.5	24.2%
Ricky Pearsall	WR73	Healthy	7.5	1.6	14.8	26	3	91.5	0	2.6 (1)	59.6	11.1	-0.3pp	8	3	—	—	—	—	0.2	1.1	4.3	2.8	39.1	20.2%
Jake Tonges	TE29	Healthy	7.1	2.3	12.4	26	30	65.7	1.5	17.1 (1)	59.6	5.8	-7.6pp	6.2	2	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.5	2.6	24.1	18.2%
Jacob Cowing	WR77	Healthy	7.0	1.1	14.3	26	3	13.3	2	0 (2)	59.6	20	-0.5pp	0.8	1	—	—	—	—	0.2	0.8	3.1	1.9	23.5	13.9%
Mac Jones	QB63	Healthy	6.2	0	15.8	26	9	41.7	0	22.6 (2)	59.6	7.2	0pp	9.4	2	16.2	108.9	0.7	0.3	1.4	3.4	—	—	—	6.1%
Christian Kirk NEW TEAM	WR137	Healthy	3.6	0	10.9	26	3	92.7	0	6.6 (6)	59.6	6.6	+0.4pp	11.6	7	—	—	—	—	0.1	0.2	2.2	1.3	17.2	10.1%
Demarcus Robinson	WR142	Healthy	3.4	0	10.7	26	3	51.5	0	5.2 (3)	59.6	11.8	+0.3pp	5.9	4	—	—	—	—	0	0.1	2.1	1.3	17.4	9.7%